The 2024 presidential race pitting Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump has seen a major non-partisan political analyst adjust its predictions in favor of Harris in three critical states.
The Cook Political Report recently reclassified North Carolina has a toss-up, including it in the seven battleground states that will presumably determine the election. North Carolina voted for a Democrat, Barack Obama, for the last time in 2008, with Trump narrowly winning the state against President Biden four years ago.
The lead slightly extended after a difficult run of debates in June, though the gain tightened after Harris became the Democratic nominee in July after Biden decided not to run for a second term.
Trump’s lead has not decreased; instead, Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points.
In Harden, explained Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, “it’s just that it’s narrowed because more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are backing Harris.”
Trump has displayed the candidate, campaigning in North Carolina three times since Biden decided not to run for the second time. Trump’s campaign has spent $8.3 million more on ads in the state than Harris.
In contrast, Harris’s campaign is set to spend approximately $30 million on ad reservations. The Cook Political Report ‘s reclassification of North Carolina as a toss-up is in line with Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, another well-known political analyst.
Walter adjusted the ratings to reclassify two other competitive states, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, which moved to lean Democrat.
Trump had shown recent gains after the Biden-Trump debate demoralizing both states, where Republicans have struggled for years. Still, according to Walter, “Harris has been successful in reconstituting and firing the Democratic coalition… rendering states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire out of the Trump campaign’s reach.”
