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Republicans are poised to regain control of the US Senate from Democrats in the upcoming election, regardless of the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
Currently, Democrats, under the leadership of New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, hold a slim 51-49 majority. This coalition includes a diverse range of politicians, from conservative Democrats like West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin to progressives like Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders.
@SpeakerJohnson says confidently on MSG that Republicans will win both House and Senate on November 5th and send @realDonaldTrump back to @WhiteHouse. pic.twitter.com/uvoPE8GKtt
— NTD News (@NTDNews) October 27, 2024
However, Manchin’s decision to retire this year leaves an open seat in his state, which is likely to be filled by the popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice.
In Montana, Democratic Sen. John Tester faces a tough challenge from Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Tester, the last Democrat standing in his state, has consistently trailed Sheehy in polls.
BREAKING: Cook Political Report officially forecasts GOP control of the Senate
🔴 MONTANA SENATE: Tossup ➡️ Lean Republican
🟡 TOSSUPS: Michigan, Ohio
🔴 SENATE: 51 R / 47 D / 2 TOSSUP pic.twitter.com/HP2bJOsqMb— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 12, 2024
Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, expressed confidence in their chances, stating, “Republicans are confident we are going to retake the Senate majority. Right now we are competitive in battlegrounds across the country and will run through the tape as we try to win as many races as possible.”
Winning West Virginia and Montana alone would give Republicans a 51-49 majority.
The GOP is also targeting four other Democratic-held seats rated as “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. If successful in these contests, Republicans could secure a 55-45 majority, a level of power not seen since the George W. Bush era.
In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a tight race against Republican Bernie Moreno. While Trump is expected to win the state easily, Brown’s popularity has made the Senate race highly competitive.
Pennsylvania sees Democratic Sen. Bob Casey defending his seat against GOP financier David McCormick. Casey maintains a slight lead, but Republicans hope a potential Trump victory could boost McCormick’s chances.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is locked in a close contest with entrepreneur Eric Hovde. Baldwin holds a narrow lead, but Republicans are banking on Trump’s influence to sway the race.
Michigan’s open seat, following Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement, pits Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin has maintained a small but consistent lead in polls.
Democrats’ best hope for a pickup is in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred is challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Additionally, independent candidate Dan Osborn has shown momentum against Nebraska GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
