Pollster Asserts Polls Will Undercount ‘Submerged’ MAGA Voters

President Joe Biden’s demonization of “MAGA Republicans” has led one of the most accurate pollsters in politics to believe that so-called “submerged” MAGA Republican voters will be undercounted in polls for the upcoming midterm elections — even by his own polling institution.

According to Robert C. Cahaly, chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group, the turnout from “submerged” MAGA voters in the November midterm elections will be undercounted by the polls.

“The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” the pollster concluded in a tweet thread. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”

Cahaly pointed to Biden’s demonization of “MAGA Republicans” — arguing that the president’s comments have effectively caused the targeted voting bloc to go into hiding publicly and from pollsters.

“Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” he tweeted. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”

The pollster went on to explain the term “submerged voters,” asserting that they will be “virtually impossible to poll.”

“I call this new group ‘submerged voters,’” Cahaly said. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.”

“At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” he added.

Cahaly has been warning for some time about silent voters that polls cannot seem to reach, as they are submerged within the population and many of them fear expressing their opinions as they are afraid of the consequences of doing so.

“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” he wrote. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”

Cahaly went on to note that the same phenomenon moved on into “cancel culture,” pushing Trump supporters to further withdraw themselves from society in 2020. This led to polls continuously undercounting support for the former president.

“In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” he tweeted. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling undercounted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.”

The demonization of Trump supporters isn’t just affecting Republicans. According to recent polling, it has also led to backlash from independent voters and even some Democrats, who have argued that Biden’s comments were “designed to incite conflict.”